top of page

Global Design Future: Obesity – Go eat yourself

 

What will the future look like in 2030?

 

Friday, my PA, wakes me up every morning in 2030. Friday is a virtual AI machine. Friday analyses and diagnoses my biorhythm and physical condition every morning to recommend what kind of supplement I should take. She saved my life last year. She identified a symptom of lung cancer. She arranged an appointment with the doctor and planned my operation schedule. Today, I feel a little bit moody so Friday projects Tel Aviv beach into my room using Virtual Reality. While I am eating and dressing Friday is telling me my schedule for the day and booking a driverless Uber as well. Autonomous cars find dynamic routes without traffic jams, and accident rates are nearly zero. Technologies have changed everything for our convenience and make a more efficient, served society. 

​

In contrast, in 2030 I wake up in a dilapidated place, cold and hungry. The Fourth Industrial Revolution was a major turning point in human development and improving the quality of life for the masses. However, a serious consequence has been that natural resources are exploited to the point of threatening human existence, possibly beyond recovery. It brought new human health problems, resource depletion and ecological damage. In particular, the near exhaustion of food and energy resources resulted in a Third World War of destruction and plundering, leaving all cities devastated. Only several million survivors now live in a few megacities, under emergency conditions and curfews, with lawlessness in the name of personal survival a constant threat. There is no hope for a positive future.

dystopian future.PNG

Sometime I have wondered and imagined, “What kind of future will I face - Utopian or Dystopian?” but it’s hard to know what will happen, even tomorrow or next year, because there are so many unpredictable variables, such as the Coronavirus pandemic. 

 

Even though it's hard to predict the exact future, lots of governments, organisations and futurologists have been trying to forecast the future because it is crucial for the ongoing survival of mankind. Foresight into the future can give us time to prepare for and even prevent potentially devastating events such as disease, resource shortages, and the consequences of wars, as far as politicians pay attention to them.

1.png

Futurology is the study of current trends to postulate possible, probable and preferable futures (Sardar,2009). It helps to visualise what the future might look like. It is about understanding what is likely to continue and what it could plausibly change. The beginning of foresight into the future is to understand past and present trends which determine the likelihood of future events and trends (NESTA, 2013). It helps to discern future scenarios which are different stories about how the future might develop and prepare diverse systemic challenges in advance (NTNU, 2009). 

​

In order to envision the future, I adopted the SDTEE (Society, Demography, Technology, Economic and Environment) research tool to analyse significant global trends because it uses transformative and global forces to define the impact on the future world of business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives (KPMG, 2014) and analyse how these will affect the landscape of design. 

Major global future trends

​

Digital society: 

We live in a hyper-connected world. The internet and connected devices are part of our daily life (World Economic Forum, 2017). More people are able to communicate over the internet - 90% of the world’s population will be able to read; 75% will have mobile connectivity (United Nations, 2017). An increase in accessing internet and connecting to digital devices results in all aspects of society being digitalised, with improved access for all to health services, transportation, energy and retail (World Economic Forum, 2018).   

 

Urbanisation:

The world’s population is projected to grow to over 10 billion by 2050, with almost all the growth taking place in urban areas (House of Commons, 2009). By 2030 two-thirds of the world’s population will live in cities (United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs, 2018). There are already 20 megacities, each with over 10 million people and there will be approximately 43 mega cities in 2030 (European Commission Directorate - General for Regional and Urban Policy & United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2016). At the same time, there will be 750 major cities with at least 750,000 inhabitants across the world (Oxford Economics, 2018). Increasing urbanisation will have a significant impact on social, economic, environment and sustainable living (United Nations Population Division, 2012), with global infrastructure costs to keep pace with urbanization estimated at USD 41 trillion between 2005 and 2030 (Mckinsey & Company, 2012). 

​

The rise of millennials:

Millennials who are born between 1980 and 2000(Nichols, 2015) are so-called because of their closeness to the new millennium and being raised in the digital age (Kaifi, 2012). They are interested in social, political and environmental activism. In 2030, millennials will be leading campaigns for social change.

  

Industry 4.0:

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, Industry 4.0 was suggested by Klaus Schwab (World Economic Forum, 2016). It is the digital revolution and it is characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres. It is a revolutionary change through the spread of the mobile internet and artificial and machine learning (Schwab, 2017). New hybrid technologies create new opportunities and tackle existing challenges in production, product development and services (Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, 2017). It will transform individual life pattern, society and the world. 

​

Growth of the global middle class:

Economic growth continues at varying pace in most parts of the world and advances in global education and technology have empowered individuals (KPMG, 2014). These significant changes will accelerate the increase of the middle class (Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, 2017). The global middle class is expected to grow and reach 5.5 billion by 2030 (European Commission, 2015). Middle class spending is expected to increase from $37 trillion in 2017 to $64 trillion by 2030. The middle classes will be the most important social and economic group in most countries. 

The dark side of prosperity in 2030

​

“Economic inequality will be higher in 2030 than today, unless we act.” – The Fabian Society

 

The future of 2030 will be more prosperous, improve the quality of life and accelerate the increase of urbanisation. More than half the world’s population will be living in megacities and medium sized cities by 2030. Cities are the centre of innovation, economic, cultural and societal activity (Pieterse & Croese, 2017). Urbanisation will bring more opportunities for growth of the economy and infrastructure development, the rise of the middle class, the improvement of advanced technologies and more inclusive and equal opportunities for people to access health, education and public services. We will live in world that we couldn’t have imagined. The future of 2030 might be the fulfilment of Thomas More’s Utopia at least for the wealthy: the perfect imaginary world that expresses man’s longing to create the perfect society; a surrealistic island, a vision of England, described as a sufficient society where social cohesion and equality are the precondition for wellbeing and happiness. 

 

However, despite economic, cultural and societal prosperity for some, in practice there won’t be an equal share in prosperities as resources deplete and basic necessities cost more and more. Ironically, the gap between rich and poor will have increased by 2030. Income inequality and social discrimination will have increased and 1.8 billion people will be living in slums ((Pieterse & Croese, 2017). 

 

According to The Fabian Society, approximately 3.6 million people will fall into poverty, including 1.2 million children in the UK by 2030. At the same time middle income households will rise by 9%. As a result, cities will be divided into rich and poor areas. Rich people will enjoy the benefits of an advanced civilisation such as autonomous transport, Virtual and Augmented Reality for consumption and customising On-Demand services and products. But on the other hand, the poor will struggle to maintain a minimum quality of life, struggling to access water, health care, education and transportation.

 

Disadvantaged children more affected by rise in childhood obesity.

​

In particular, accessing quality food is likely to be a critical issue for poor people. Food poverty is an ongoing issue but it will become a more critical problem in 2030. We have already witnessed an increase in the need for food banks and community support hubs during the Corona virus pandemic, due to the shortage of and increase in the cost of food. Food is the basic necessity of life. It is an essential resource for survival. The higher socio-economic groups may be able to afford fresh produce, organic food and good quality sources of protein, but those on low incomes will have limited options to buy good quality food and groceries because they face income poverty. 

 

Income poverty doesn’t necessarily mean people suffer from malnutrition, but are more likely to be exposed to the risk overweight and obesity because junk food is cheaper than quality food. UCL published research revealing the link between disadvantaged children and the trend towards obesity by comparing children born in 1946, 1958,1970 and 2001 (Lancet Public Health. 2018). Children who were born before the 21st century from lower socioeconomic classes had a lower than average weight, those born in 2001 had a higher average weight. This study reveals obesogenic environments (growth environments that encourage unhealthy eating including not supplementing with vitamins and minerals) have disproportionately affected socioeconomic disadvantaged children. 

 

The global trend of increased urbanisation may be a symbol of prosperity, but it will bring an income inequality that is likely to result in a surge in child obesity, projected to affect almost half of the world’s adult population by 2030 (WHO, 2020). Moreover, child obesity leads to a higher risk of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in adult life. Overweight and obese children are likely to stay obese into adulthood and are more likely to develop non-communicable diseases at a younger age (Swanston, 2010). 

 

Children living in deprived areas are substantially more likely to be obese. Among reception (age 4 -5) children, 6.4% of those in the least deprived areas are obese compared with 12.4% of those in the most deprived areas. In Year 6 (age 10-11), 13.3% of children in the least deprived areas are obese, compared with 26.7% in the most deprived areas (House of Commons Library, 2019).

obesity 1.PNG

Source: ONS

According to the latest report, one in five children from deprived areas start primary school obese or overweight, and this increases to more than one in three by the time they leave (NHS Digital, 2017).

ggggg.png

Source: ONS

Availability of HFSS fast food in deprived areas

​

While a lack of exercise may be one contributory factor towards obesity, eating a diet high in fat, sugar and salt (HFSS) is a far more significant. There are many cheap fast food outlets in deprived areas, increasing the rate of availability of HFSS compared to more affluent areas. According to Public Health England (PHE), in 2014 it was estimated that there were over 50,000 fast food and takeaway outlets (GOV UK, 2017) with five times more fast food shops in deprived areas, and it has been increasing rapidly. 

The data below shows that there is an evidence of a link between fast food outlets and level of deprivation and fast food outlets and obesity.

3.png

Fast Food Chicken shop 2030 - a possible future scenario using speculative design

​

In 2030, moreso than now, children from economically disadvantaged backgrounds will have fewer options to choose meals within their budget. Fast food outlets primarily selling fried chicken are a popular choice because it is delicious and cheap, yet full of fat and salt. The increase of chicken shops on the high street is a controversial issue because they make high fat junk food readily available to children who flock there during school lunchtime and on the way home.  

​

As I address future global trends, particularly industry 4.0, the growth of the middle class and an increase of urbanisation, the emphasis is often on prosperity and the improved quality of life. However, the increasing polarisation of wealth, especially coupled with unpredictable events such as the current virus pandemic, has exposed the sudden and extreme vulnerability of lower socio-economic groups particularly in regard to accessing food.  Food items such as quality meat, eggs and fresh vegetables are in short supply and expensive. Taking advantage of this opportunity, a new kind of fast food chicken shop becomes the trend in deprived areas, selling burgers using human fat. Obese people have extra fat in their body. At the point of purchase of unhealthy food, a customer is invited to have instant liposuction to re-use human fat as an ingredient. This hybrid is much cheaper than real or artificial meat and accessible to everyone. Following this scenario, we focus on exploring the future of chicken shop experience in 2030 using liposuction technology. 

5.png

Fast food chicken shops recognise the power of advertising to affect decision making. Chicken shops display the price and (sometimes) the calories in their food products, but in fact it is hard for customers truly comprehend the meaning of “calories” - are they good calories or bad calories? How are excess bad calories stored in the body and how do these bad calories affect every aspect of health, not just weight gain? Chicken shops focus on describing food visually - “it looks delicious” to manipulate food consumption rather than informing how it is unhealthy. Liposuction chicken shops are popular because customers are driven by the addictive flavour - easily customised with cheap sauces - and the low cost.

​

“Design today is concerned primarily with commercial and marketing activities but it could operate on a more intellectual level. It could place new technological developments within imaginary but believable everyday situations that would allow us to debate the implications of different technological futures before they happen.” Anthony Dunne and Fiona Raby

​

Speculative design is the practice of creating imaginative projections of possible futures using design representations and objects with narrative scenarios in order to think about the possible future critically (Disalvo, 2013). It uses scenarios based on utopian or dystopian futures and rapid prototyping, borrowing from art, literature and films. (Tanenbaum et al., 2012).  

Speculative design is an approach enabling designers to think about the future critically (Hales, 2013). Speculative design is the activity of making criticism of societal development (Auger, 2013). 

​

In the book of “Speculative Everything”, Dune & Raby explains on the B part of “A/B manifesto” 

aaa.png

The A-list is the traditional design approach and the B-list is Dune & Raby’s specific perception about what the aim of design is. Traditional design suggests solutions or ways to improve products or manipulate customers to purchase products. Speculative design challenges the perception of traditional design and considers the implication of design and questions the ethics of design practice to reveal values and agendas. It can be a key to open space between possible and preferable futures, between reality and impossibility as provocations for future design. It addresses a specific issue or phenomena to reveal underlying agendas regarding the perceived provocations of the design (Bardzell, 2012).

 

How can speculative design address child obesity through the 2030 chicken shop?

​

Speculative design imagines a possible future, and creating objects presents a way of provoking public debate now about the future. Can exposing the hidden horror of the HFSS diet through the inescapable visual horror of the liposuction burger be enough to wake us all from sleepwalking into a true dystopian nightmare? In my understanding, the meaning of provocation is related to design ethics; what is right for humanity, society and the individual. 

 

I want to think about two points. First, are ethics important when creating provocative artefacts?

 

Even though consuming human fat may be cost effective, under what circumstances could people ever be permitted to do so?

​

Below are two documented examples of extreme circumstances leading to cannibalism in Jewish history:

 

“Some time later, Ben Hadad king of Aram mobilised his entire army and marched up and laid siege to Samaria. There was a great famine in the city… As the king of Israel was passing on the wall, a woman cried to him, “Help me my lord the king! This woman said to me, “Give up your son so we may eat him today, and tomorrow we’ll eat my son.” So we cooked my son and ate him. The next day I said to her, “Give up your son so we may eat him,” but she had hidden him.” When the king heard the woman’s words, he tore his robes.”

- 2 Kings 6:24-30, NIV, Zondervan, 1985)

​

“During the Roman siege of Jerusalem by Titus in 70 A.D., guards inside the city found a woman who seemed to have food. They threatened to cut her throat immediately if she did not show them what food she had obtained. She replied that she had saved a very fine portion of it for them, and withal uncovered what was left of her son.”

- Josephus, Wars of the Jews Vol. 6, Chapter 3:4. 

 

These two stories exemplify the desperation of famine. Mothers killed their own sons for food in order to survive, and there are other similar stories throughout history. This week a father and son were both jailed for 15 years in Ukraine for killing and eating a man for pleasure. - Daily Mail, 2020.  

 

Are there any circumstances in which it is acceptable to eat human flesh? So far in human history there have been none. Will this render the provocation of a liposuction burger meaningless, in that it can never be taken seriously? Since the product is made of the consumer’s own personal fat, it is not exactly cannibalism. The point of the image is to educate consumers by helping them to understand the direct effect of eating HFSS food, to deter them from buying HFSS food that will make them obese and reduce their quality and span of life. However it is also to shock the rest of the population into addressing the problem of child obesity and the circumstances that lead to it.

​

Back to the future of the chicken shop. In economic and technology terms, re-using human fat is cost-effective exploratory alternative food technology for disadvantaged groups to provide an accessible and sustainable supply of food. There’s no cannibalism involved (yet). Just recycling unnecessary fat from their own bodies. It could be a new kind of circular economy. 

 

In the Oxford English Dictionary, ethics are “moral principles that govern a person's behaviour or the conducting of an activity.” Many professions have their own vocational ethics. The doctor’s ethic is the Hippocratic Oath - healing patients and saving/preserving life. The commercial company’s responsibility is to protect customer’s private information. For the designer, there is no equivalent to the Hippocratic Oath. Design ethics are influenced by the moral character of the designer and their own notion of duty and virtue. It can be argued that design should not engage or support discrimination of race, sex, religion or disability. Design has large scale influence on how people behave and live in society because it permeates every aspect of existence, therefore consideration must be given to any innate ethical implication. Design ethics is a crucial element of making. 

 

For example, Grenfell Tower, located in one of the most affluent areas in England, was specifically designed as social housing. The 24-storey tower block was designed in 1967, constructed in 1970 and underwent major renovation between 2012 and 2016. Part of the renovation project replaced the cladding to improve the appearance of the building, and it was this cladding that contributed to the extent of the tragic fire in June 2017 that claimed the lives of 71 people. Grenfell Tower was compromised by immoral design ethics arguably inspired by greed and prejudice. The external appearance and the lower working class demographic of the residents were perceived to be at odds with the surrounding environment. Although the renovation included improvements to the heating system, as well as to the outside of the building, the implementation and the results of the work caused years of immeasurable inconvenience and eventually the loss of 71 lives. The example of Grenfell Tower demonstrates the important role of ethics of designers. Should design be utilised as a method of discriminating social class and expressing prejudice? Is design fundamentally moral? Do designers have moral responsibility? I would like to consider the ethics of design, particularly designers’ regard to the individual human consumer, the moral responsibilities of designers to provide better future to people. Nowadays designers have less subjectivity in aim and freedom of design. They face the ongoing challenge of balancing the considerations of personal value judgements and social judgements according to moral obligation, client’s interests and designer’s economic profit. We live in a market economy era. Making profit is important but designers have to consider human value and focus on people who may be forced to consider eating a liposuction burger, considering what they need and how to improve food production, availability and marketing. If we don’t consider ethical responsibilities, the outcome will bring more serious disasters like Grenfell Tower. 

 

Second, speculative design can be a valuable research process. Speculative design is a powerful tool to simulate possible and preferable futures. By creating fictional artefacts such as objects, images, films and texts it extends perspective to explore the implications of new developments across science, technology and politics. (Bassett et al, 2013). The aim of speculative design invites participants to discuss and inform developments. Inviting participants is not about problem solving. It is a way of problem finding. It opens up space so that people can share their feedback and ideas to offer new perspective approaches because they might have different angles to experience new development. Adopting speculative design might not give perfect answers, but it enables us to explore pluralistic futures in advance. Experiencing future design is crucial part because it offers options and warnings. Making food using human fat could be cost effective but on the other hand, it is against societal ethic and design ethic which means no one expects to have it. Adopting speculative design can be good design research process to simulate whether it is ‘good design’ or ‘not’ and offer understanding of feasibility and desirability of services and products.   

 

Conclusion

 

Speculative design can offer unlimited scope for forming design solutions and without the ethical restrictions necessary in practical design. There are so many social problems that have been tolerated for so long that society is in danger of becoming inured or groomed into just accepting them as inevitable, such as homelessness, domestic and child abuse, and also child and adult obesity, but which could be effectively addressed with timely, discerning, informed scenarios. The impact of the Corona virus pandemic on western society has presented us with a unique opportunity to utilise speculative design and initiate whole new positive and hopeful directions for society. Whether or not individuals, especially children, can be persuaded to avoid HFSS food by presenting possible future horrors is debateable, after all, people continue to smoke despite the cost and the images of cancer-ridden lungs on cigarette packets. We need a whole society involvement to change the problems in society. 

References

Z, Sardar (2009). “The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight - What’s in a name?”

NESTA (2013). “Don’t stop thinking about future: A modest defence of futurology”.

NTNU (2009). “Future Studies, Foresight and Scenarios as basis for better strategic decisions”. 

KMPG. (2014). “Future State 2030: The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments”.

World Economic Forum. (2017). “Shaping the Future Implications of Digital Media for Society Valuing Personal Data and Rebuilding Trust”.

United Nation. (2017). “Literacy Rates Continue to Rise from One Generation to the Next”, Fact Sheet No. 45 September 2017.

World Economic Forum. (2018). “Our Shared Digital Future Building an Inclusive, Trustworthy and Sustainable Digital Society.”

House of Commons. (2009). “Urbanisation and poverty”.

United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs. (2018). “World Urbanization Prospects”.

United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs. (2018). “World Urbanization Prospects”.

European Commission Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy & United Nations Human Settlements Programme. (2016). “The State of European Cities”.

Oxford Economics. (2018). “Future trends and market opportunities in the world’s largest 750 cities”.

United Nations Population Division. (2012). “World Urbanization Prospects – The 2011 Revision”. 

Mckinsey & Company. (2012).

T, Nichols. (2015). “Understanding the Millnnial Generation.”

Kaifi, B. A., Nafei, W. A., Khanfar, N. M., & Kaifi, M. M. (2012). “A multi-generational workforce: managing and understanding millennials.” International Journal of Business & Management, 7(24), 88-93.

World Economic Forum. (2016). “The Fourth Industrial Revolution”. 

 K, Schwab. (2017). “The Fourth Industrial Revolution; Crown Business: New York, NY, USA”

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. (2017). “Scenario 2030: The future of product development”.

KMPG. (2014). “Future State 2030: The Global Megatrends Shaping Governments”.

Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. (2017). “Scenario 2030: The future of product development”.

European Commission. “Developments and Forecasts of Growing Consumerism”.

E, Pieterse & S, Croese. (2017). “The 2030 Agenda: sustainable urbanisation and the research-policy interface - issues for the G20”.

Fabian Society. (2015). “Inequality 2030”.

WHO. (2020). “Obesity”. Available at: https://www.who.int/topics/obesity/en/

Dent, M. & Swanston, (2010). “Obesity and Life Expectancy. Oxford: National Obesity Observatory 2010”. 

The Academy of medical Science, (2017). “Addressing the Global Health Challenge of Obesity in Malaysia”.

House of Commons Library. (2019). “Obesity Statistics”.

NHS Digital. (2017). “Statistics on Obesity, Physical Activity and Diet, England 2017”. Health and Social Care Information Centre.

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2017/03/31/health-matters-obesity-and-the-food-environment/

bottom of page